A Fight for the Soul of the Nation - U.S. Presidential Election Predictions for 2024:

There is less than a year until next November, and with it, another presidential election in the United States. It’s impossible to predict what could occur in the intervening twelve months. Nonetheless, a picture is already starting to form, however opaque it still may be. It already seems fated for incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump to face up for the soul of the nation once again. Despite the obvious strength and experience of both candidates, there are some who disagree who is set to be next year’s front runners.

The Democratic Party (politically centre-left) is united in solidarity behind the eighty-year-old politician. This fact is notwithstanding recent internal frictions, owing to Biden’s controversial full support of Israel. However, worries abound about third-party candidates, and for good reason. There has been a history of close presidential elections in which a loss for one Democrat or Republican candidate could be attributed to third parties syphoning votes. At the moment, there is the disgraced Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Independent), Cornell West (Independent) and Jill Stein (Green Party). There is also the possibility of a fourth runner-up, with rumours that Democrat Joe Manchin will soon announce his candidacy, as part of the “No-Labels Party” (Politi, 2023). West and Stein are placed on the centre-left of the political spectrum, while Kennedy and Manchin both have their respective former support bases in the Democratic Party. As a result, the Democrats fear that they may attract enough disillusioned voters to cost them the executive chair.

On the Republican side (politically centre-right), the party is more fractious, with multiple contenders for the GOP presidential nomination. Currently, there are four potential candidates running to replace Trump; Ron Desantis (Governor of Florida), Nikki Haley (Former Governor of South Carolina), Chris Christie (Former Governor of New Jersey)and young firebrand Vivek Ramaswamy. Each player has made use of the past three televised debates to tear each other apart using personal attacks. All the while, the elephant in the room (or rather not in) was left unaddressed. Trump has been strategically absent from every debate, preferring instead to cater to his followers at local rallies. This action clearly displays Trump’s belief in his nomination as a foregone conclusion. The Republican front-runners are playing a tightrope act. They obviously have to disparage the former president in order to stand a chance. However, they must also make sure to control their attacks to not be too personal. Haley, Christieand Ramaswamy need to keep the back door open for communications if they desire the secondary possibility of becoming Trump’s running mate for vice president. This area is where predictions become far more speculative.

Some journalists have postulated that Trump will select a female politician to run on his ballot as vice president (Americast, 2023a). This could act to widen his possible support base.Based on this information, Haley seems most likely to fit the bill of the role . The accomplished diplomat has proven to be one of the GOP’s young rising stars, while Ron Desantis has merely proven to be a discount emulation of Trump.

A recent Siena /New York Times poll predicts a Trump victory in five of the six important swing states: Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, leaving a Democrat victory in only Wisconsin. It is important to note that Biden has recently lost a large fraction of his young supporters with the decision to unequivocally back Israel. However, this fracture in his voter base may well mend before next November. Most Americans also remain ignorant of the Biden-Harris administration’s economic achievements. When asked in a survey, only 14% of U.S. citizens believed that President Biden had made them better off (Fedor, Roeder, Xiao, 2023). Despite this data, Trump has not become more desired, in fact, his popularity has actually decreased. However, comparatively his popularity has decreased less than Biden’s (BBC Americast, 2023). Based on all of the current data provided, it appears that Trump is on track for a second presidential term.

Highly contentious issues, such as gun control and abortion laws, remain prevalent and the American public is exhausted after seven years of polarisation, dissatisfaction and loss of belief in the government. With both front runners being almost octogenarians, not only is the potential for a health scare likely between now and election season but the feeling of a lack of forward-thinking in politics is ever-growing. A lot can happen in the twelve months leading up to the next presidential election, and the future of the soul of the nation remains uncertain.

Bibliography:

“Americanswers LIVE: One Year to Go.” Americast, BBC News, posted 3rd November,

2023a. Accessed 14th November 2023.

Goldmacher, Shane. “Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena

Poll Finds.” Financial Times, published 5th November, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html Accessed 14th November 2023.

Fedor, Lauren, Roeder, Oliver, and Xiao Eva. “Only 14% of US voters say Joe Biden has

made them better off.” Financial Times, published 13th November, 2023. https://www.ft.com/content/c17c35a3-e030-4e3b-9f49-c6bdf7d3da7f Accessed 14th November 2023.

Politi, James. “Third-party candidates pose new threat to Biden re-election bid.” Financial

Times, published 12th November, 2023. https://www.ft.com/content/212c5b12-ec60-42c6-9fcf-04058a143be0 Accessed 14th November 2023.

“Trump’s Poll Position.” Americast, BBC News, posted 10th November, 2023b. Accessed

14th November 2023.