After COP28, where is the progress on the climate agenda?

When Azerbaijan hosts the COP29 summit this year it will hold the dubious honour of being the second petrostate in a row to host the world’s primary conference on climate action. Combined with increased involvement of fossil fuel lobbyists and the use of the conferences to conclude oil deals, substantial questions have been raised about the credibility of the Climate Change Conferences (Rowlatt, 2023). The goal-setting for action on climate change has remained vague, and enforcement mechanisms are entirely voluntary (Chandrasekhar, 2023). While this continues to be the case, the action that will have to be taken to reverse climate change will only become more drastic as time runs out (CarbonIndependent, 2023). As it stands, the target of holding warming below 1.5° C is largely considered to now be impossible, whilst the current goals, even those agreed in principle without an enforcement mechanism, remain completely insufficient to keep warming below 2° C (Clark, 2024).

This concern only increases when one observes the agreed upon context at COP 28. There was some expansion, assessment and formalisation of existing targets. In addition, there was a commitment to triple the output of renewables and formalise the Net Zero target by 2050 (CarbonBrief, 2023). However, this belies two critical omissions. The first is the rejection by the Committee of the term ‘phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050’ (Dewan, 2023). The second is the substitution of the term ‘phase-out of coal emissions’ for the term ‘phase-out of unabated coal emissions’ (UNFCCC, 2023). The conditional term ‘unabated’ refers to carbon capture and storage, a method of burying fossil fuel emissions, especially coal, in the ground as they are produced. It is only moderately effective at sequestering carbon emissions and is not capable of seriously reducing the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere (Nuccitelli, 2023). It seems the fossil fuel lobby views CCS as a get-out-of-jail-free card that enables them to avoid serious attempts to cut back on emissions. At COP 29 this year, it is highly likely that the language of ending ‘unabated’ coal emissions will also be extended to oil and gas production (Dewan, 2023). 

Fortunately, it would appear that, as COP’s credibility diminishes, the fruits of its labours are being more widely dispersed. Outside of the climate conference circuit, there now appears to be many green shoots (Vetter, 2023). The world installed more solar capacity in the past three years than in all the previous years put together, and this rate will only increase as time goes on (SkepticalScience, 2023). On current trajectories, solar power will likely be on course to generate nearly half the world’s energy output by 2030, an astonishing achievement (IEA, 2023). The International Energy Agency now regards the shift to renewables as an unstoppable trend; with more renewable energy being installed every year than fossil fuel energy (Rowlatt, 2023), it is predicted that fossil fuel emissions will peak within this decade (Bond, 2023). In practice therefore, the majority of the impetus for the current green energy transition is being provided by private initiative, domestic industrial policy, and technological developments, rather than the process of international conferences and goal setting, increasingly subsumed and captured by fossil fuel interests and geopolitical imperatives (Rowlatt, 2023).

In summary, activists must understand that geopolitical imperatives and deeply rooted economic preferences make it unlikely that governments around the world will ever be able to agree to the widespread energy transformation at a pace that is necessary (Carrington, 2023). Climate change remains a tragedy of the commons and conferences will likely continue to be ineffectual talking shops for the foreseeable future. For those serious about the green energy transformation, it is more promising to look at the actions that are taking place elsewhere, most notably the expansion of the clean energy sector, the electric car revolution, and the improvements in nuclear and renewable technology. It is these transformations that will enable the achievement of meaningful goals and the consignment of the fossil fuel industries to the dustbin of history. 

References:

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