The Future of Conflicts in a Resource Scarce World

As we approach the end of 2023, we find ourselves being plunged into further global instability. The Ukrainian war approaches its third year of continuation, and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine has seen a resurgence onto the global public agenda. Whilst we cast our eyes upon the violence surging from Europe to Africa, and from Southeast Asia to the Levant, we must draw attention to the increasing scarcity of one fundamental component of war— resources.

Conflict and resource scarcity: a Complex Interplay

Resource scarcity plays a complicated role in conflict, as both a driver and a consequence of violence. Since Houthi forces entered a state of war against the Saudi-led coalition following their seizure of Yemen’s capital Sana’a, Yemen has cascaded into what has been noted as one of the “largest humanitarian crises in history” (UNICEF, 2023). The effects of climate change and over-irrigation had already been diminishing the water availability in Yemen before the outbreak of civil war, with community disputes over water resources having been long documented across the country (Jafarnia, 2022). The conflict has resulted in devastating activities such as the destruction of critical water infrastructure and rising cases of water theft, which have exacerbated Yemen’s scarcity of water. Without access to clean water resources for hydration and sanitation purposes, and without a sustainable water management plan, forced migration, outbreak of water-borne disease, and mortality rates, are just a few examples of what is to come.

This complex interplay between conflict and resource scarcity is also clear in Somalia. Somalia continues to face what has now become one of the oldest African wars. State collapse and clan warfare have defined Somalia’s political landscape over the last three decades— as has food scarcity. In the past decade alone, Somalia has experienced three significant droughts which have triggered famine across the nation. Subsequent land aridity has resulted in decreased crop yield and the death of livestock. Food resources have also been weaponised by competing clans across the country as powerful militias engage in land and water theft to prevent resource access to members of rival clans; communities most impacted by food insecurity are those living in areas that have been contested or cut off by the Islamic insurgent group, Al-Shabaab (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2023). Natural disasters will occur more frequently as the effects of climate change intensify, and consequently, the ability of militia groups such as Al-Shabaab to weaponise essential food production resources will only increase whilst Somalia’s power struggle continues at the detriment of effective governance.

The Future of Conflict with Limited Resources

Conflicts arising through resource competition are becoming increasingly frequent, particularly as the variability of rainfall and the occurrence of natural disasters increase, and hydro-meteorological behaviours continue to change. The scarcity crises in both Yemen and Somalia evidence that whilst resource scarcity can arise as a repercussion of war, it can also act as a driver of violence.

Countless predictions can be made regarding the future of conflict in a world where fundamental resources are scarce. Many scholars have already noted a likely proliferation of localised conflict in regions as access to resources such as food, water, and energy, becomes increasingly limited. One could argue that a world where resource scarcity is not ameliorated would be one of ‘Hobbesian’ nature whereby we find ourselves in a brutish state of constant resource competition. It is even plausible to question whether a future without adequate management of essential resources would see the demise of ‘democratic peace theory’, as democratic states are forced to fight one another in order to secure access to strained resources.

To prevent further acceleration of resource competition, capture, and conflict at both the local- and state levels, effective resource management must become a shared commitment across the international community. Moreover, the exploitation of natural resources by actors such as political elites, militia organisations, and multinational corporations must be combatted. To address the projections of increased resource-related conflict, a first step is clear. Climate change must be recognised and addressed as an existential threat to essential resources and as an existential threat to peace.

References.

Africa Center for Strategic Studies, (2023), Unresolved Conflicts Continue to Drive Africa’s Food Crisis, [Online], Available at: https://africacenter.org/spotlight/unresolved-conflicts-continue-to-drive-africas-food-crisis/#:~:text=%2C%20al%20Shabaab.”-,Somali%20communities%20most%20impacted%20by%20acute%20food%20insecurity%20live%20in,first%20half%20of%20this%20year [Accessed: 15 November 2023].

Jafarnia, N. (2022), Yemen’s future conflicts will be over water. [Online], Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/10/14/yemen-conflicts-water-displaced [Accessed 15 November 2023].

UNICEF, (2023), What’s happening in Yemen?, [Online], Available at: https://www.unicef.org/emergencies/yemen-crisis [Accessed 15 November 2023].